Drug Assessments for 2008

National Drug Intelligence Center
National Drug Threat Assessment 2008
October 2007

Large cocaine seizures and strong cocaine interdiction operations appear to have disrupted the ability of some foreign DTOs to supply cocaine to the United States and have caused many U.S. cities, primarily cities in the eastern United States, to experience decreased availability of cocaine during the first half of 2007. In certain cities, these shortages have continued through October 2007. However, Mexican DTOs will most likely undertake concerted efforts to reestablish their supply chain, and because cocaine production in South America appears to be stable or increasing, cocaine availability could return to normal levels during late 2007 and early 2008. Mexican DTOs are the dominant distributors of wholesale quantities of cocaine in the United States, and no other group is positioned to challenge them in the near term.

Strategic Findings

Potential South American cocaine production increased in 2006 as Colombian coca growers adapted their growing practices to counter intensified coca eradication.
The Eastern Pacific route, the primary cocaine transportation route within the Mexico-Central America Corridor, may be gaining even greater prominence in cocaine trafficking to the United States.
Cocaine smuggling through South Texas POEs most likely accounts for a greater portion of the cocaine available in U.S. drug markets than does cocaine smuggled through any other area of the Southwest Border, despite cocaine flow through California POEs increasing sharply in 2006.
Cocaine availability decreased in several U.S. drug markets during the first half of 2007, most likely because of a combination of factors that included large cocaine seizures in transit toward the United States, law enforcement efforts against prominent Mexican DTOs, violent conflicts between competing Mexican DTOs, and increased competition from non-U.S. markets.
High levels of cocaine-related crime, rates of abuse, and overdose incidents are a considerable burden to the nation–a condition not likely to diminish in the near term.

For more information on Cocaine go to; cocaine assessment 2008

Heroin

Overview

Heroin is readily available in most large metropolitan areas and, increasingly, in some suburban and rural markets throughout the country. Abuse levels are stable at relatively low levels; however, abuse is increasing among young adults in a number of suburban and rural areas. Abuse is generally concentrated in the Northeast, where the drug is most available. The majority of the heroin consumed in eastern markets of the United States is South American, and the availability of other forms of white heroin (Southwest Asian and Southeast Asian) is limited. Abuse of prescription narcotics as a precursor to heroin among adolescents is an emerging concern to law enforcement and public health officials. Also of concern is the abuse of cheese heroin–a combination of Mexican black tar heroin and over-the-counter pain relievers that contain diphenhydramine HCl–which has been encountered in a small number of areas.

Strategic Findings

Overall decreases in retail purity of South American heroin and increasing retail purity of Mexican heroin may aid Mexican DTOs in expanding Mexican heroin distribution.
Colombian DTOs increasingly rely on Mexican DTOs to smuggle South American heroin into the United States.
The availability of Southwest Asian heroin in the United States is at a low level and will very likely remain so in the near term.
Southeast Asian heroin remains available in certain U.S. drug markets; however, availability is limited and appears to be declining.
Expanded opium poppy cultivation and decreased eradication in Mexico have resulted in a significant increase in the potential amount of Mexican heroin destined for the United States.
Deaths occasioned by the abuse of fentanyl (often used in combination with heroin) have decreased sharply since spring 2006.
The abuse of cheese heroin, which has contributed to numerous overdose deaths in Dallas, Texas, since 2005, has emerged in a few other drug markets.

For more information about Heroin go to: Heroin Assessment 2008

Methamphetamine

Overview

Methamphetamine production and distribution are undergoing significant changes. Methamphetamine use has stabilized nationally after increasing during much of the 1990s through 2002, and domestic production of methamphetamine has decreased dramatically since 2004. Nevertheless, the increasing prevalence of high-purity ice methamphetamine throughout the country and the expansion of Mexican and, more recently, Asian DTO methamphetamine networks have largely sustained methamphetamine markets in the United States. Despite significant chemical import restrictions in Mexico, methamphetamine production in that country is very high, and Mexico is the primary source of methamphetamine in U.S. drug markets. Moreover, large-scale production of methamphetamine has increased significantly in Canada as outlaw motorcycle gangs (OMGs) and Asian DTOs expand their position with respect to methamphetamine production in Canada. Some methamphetamine produced in Canada is distributed in U.S. drug markets, particularly methamphetamine tablets sold as MDMA. Nevertheless, Mexican DTOs distributing Mexican methamphetamine continue to dominate domestic markets. In fact, distribution of the drug in domestic drug markets by Mexican DTOs is increasing, supplanting many local dealers who had previously produced and distributed the drug independently.

Strategic Findings

Mexican DTOs are circumventing chemical sale and import restrictions in Mexico in order to maintain large-scale methamphetamine production in that country.
Mexican methamphetamine distribution networks are expanding in many U.S. drug markets and have supplanted many local midlevel and retail dealers in areas of the Great Lakes, Pacific, Southeast, Southwest, and West Central Regions.
Methamphetamine production in Canada has increased; some Canadian methamphetamine is intended for distribution in U.S. drug markets.
State and federal precursor chemical controls and sustained law enforcement pressure continue to drive down domestic methamphetamine production levels.
Methamphetamine availability trends in U.S. drug markets are mixed; some markets in western states have reported sporadic and temporary shortages, while markets in other regions have reported stable to increasing availability.
Law enforcement pressure and chemical controls in the United States and Mexico appear to be contributing to intermittent methamphetamine shortages in some
western drug markets.
Methamphetamine use appears to be stable; however, treatment for methamphetamine abuse has more than doubled since 2000.

For mor information on Methampethamine go to: Methamphetamine assessment 2008

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